Sports Betting: The Mathematics behind Sports Betting

“Sports betting is all about money management, so the most money won on one event is not the most important thing.” – Bruce Dern

Are you considering opening an online sports betting account? If so, are you a beginner, or do you have some experience with the betting industry behind you?

These questions may seem trite or demeaning. However, it is not their intention. At the outset of this content, it is vital to be cognizant of the fact that, to place bets successfully, it is vital to understand how the different types of bets are structured as well as the statistics and mathematics behind them.

Thus, by way of explaining the science behind profitable sports betting, let’s start with the quotation by Bruce Dern. Succinctly stated, the quintessential element of successful sports betting is your overall money management strategy. Additionally, it is unrealistic to expect to win every single bet placed. You will place losing wagers. Thus, it’s not about the individual bet. It’s about your overall betting strategy and how you manage your total bankroll.

Types of sports bets and placing strategic bets

There are many different types of wagers offered by the various online sports betting companies like; therefore, it is vital to gain an understanding of several of the more popular betting types.

And, because a fundamental component of ensuring that the majority of your wagers are successful is the consideration of the mathematics and statistics behind the different kinds of bets, let’s look at some of the types of wagers that can be placed and the mathematical equations behind them:

Calculating odds

At the outset, it is critical to note that bets are based on odds. In other words, the odds are based on the probability of an event happening like a specific team winning the match. Odds are essentially calculated using probabilities. Every game has a set number of outcomes. And, the odds present the likelihood of the event occurring. Fractional odds are used to indicate how likely a specified event is expected to occur.

Moneyline bets

Simply stated, when placing a Moneyline bet, you need to choose a winning team. It does not allow spreads or handicaps. Essentially, it is a win-or-lose wager. Thus, the math behind this wager is 1/1 or 1:1. You have an equal chance or a fifty percent chance of choosing the winning team.

Spread betting

This is the most common wager type in the USA. And, describes spread betting as “wagers that are made against the spread.”

What is the spread?

In summary, the spread, or line, is a number assigned to a team when two teams play each other, and the bookmakers perceive one side to be the likely winner. The maths behind this bet is that the favourite team takes points from the final score and the other team gives points to the final score.

You are not betting on which team will win or lose. You are betting on which team is most likely to surpass their expected outcome. And, the spread is the difference between the two points – the likely winner and the likely loser. You will be paid out the spread based on the bookmaker’s calculated odds per point in the spread.